The Edge of the Map

November 3, 2025 — Expectations were high for the FOMC to deliver a dovish outcome in last week’s rate decision. As anticipated, the Fed lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.00% and signaled an end to balance sheet runoff. However, the announcement also included a few hawkish surprises, which injected fresh uncertainty into the outlook for Fed policy — especially in light of the limited federal economic data available due to the ongoing government shutdown.